Economic data

As if it isn’t enough that Economics as a discipline is all tangled up and circular, always as if deeper in the hole it has itself created. As if that isn’t enough to bring out the mystery and excitement of this sort-of-art and sort-of-science but really neither one. In addition, there is the shaky ground of the very information that is underlying, on which models are constructed and which adds to the adventure in unbounded ways.

I’ve wondered about the data behind employment trends before, and I keep wondering about it. While the updates keep updating, the gap that puzzles me remains. Maybe the puzzle is my own, I’m sure the specialists have it all figured out and reconciled. I’m sure it’s as precise as algebra, and only subject to interpretation. Which is where I stumble.

Here goes my mental block again…

Exhibit A
Exhibit B

If you add up the big bars in Exhibit A (initial weekly claims) and compare the ballpark figure to the latest total in Exhibit B (continuing claims), you may conclude that more than half of those who filed initial claims in the past months have returned to work. All while the noted new-claim bars each week stay elevated and stubborn, unprecedentedly almost.

First off, the two results seem somehow contradictory, and secondly, they don’t quite reconcile to common sense. If the shutting down of a giant economy can lead to the loss of more than 40 million jobs at once, and then with upkeep, how (when?) has that shock reversed concurrently to the tune of half?

No doubt, there is an economic explanation. Perhaps it’s rooted in the “seasonal adjustment” noted in the fine print of the graphs, perhaps it’s in the difference between the data sources, some based on agency statistics and others on surveys of some kind? (Do people still respond to those? Like Nielsen television ratings back when there wasn’t a digital connection?) Perhaps. Or maybe it’s all really as accurate as a clock. That seems like the most likely possibility, in light of market scrutiny at every single moment.

But either way, perhaps it doesn’t matter. If the vocabulary and the grammar are accepted, the language is the language that is and should be used. It’s important for there to be a way to tell the time and be in sync for our appointments, as much as we may secretly question the schedule.