The ’20s will be the decade in which “first do no harm” will displace “move fast and break things” in the lexicon, psyche and practice of an expansionary cycle that will feel different from economic cycles of the past.
Tech-enabled value creation or destruction will be more properly understood as transformation, and the race will not be to disrupt but to adapt, which is not a winner-take-all or zero-sum proposition.
Capital formation will not be on the basis of the new idea as much as flawless execution, and the effect will be circularly felt in capital allocation.
Although the asset will be increasingly intangible in nature, it will be well defined and measurable – an addition to market efficiency that will leave fewer gaps to fill with speculation.
The next big thing has been here for a while, the coming era will usher in its fading novelty.