When would you have bought or sold?

Is a 30-year hold period really an edge that the individual investor has over the institutional?

WSJ – Jason Zweig

Are client pressures really the only reason investors cut their losses or otherwise seek liquidity?

Is timing of the entry (or exit) at the perfect entry or exit point over a 3-decade span something that either individual or institutional investors can master?

Instead of the advice/analysis that “if you had invested $1 in Bell Telephone in 1877 your heirs would be the namesakes of museum wings by 1960, [whereas Fidelity Investments wouldn’t be]”…

… which advice/analysis doesn’t help the individual or the institution to improve investment performance in any way…

… might it not be more instructive/interesting to map out the same long-term chart but with highlighted company/industry/market/economic transformations along the way?

It’s a more complicated analysis, this is true, because price action sometimes leads and sometimes trails these things…

… but the points of transformation or transition are the pivot points, the truer buy/sell signals, and the markets have had plenty to keep everybody busy of late.

For instance, here is the Apple chart… a company that hasn’t been the same at any of the decade markers of the past…

Macrotrends

Apple hasn’t been the only company to change…

When would you have bought or sold?